Real estate bubble talk seems to be the most prevalent question I'm asked by the national media, be it print, online, or TV. The problem is that the market national real estate is comprised of thousands of micro-markets and making a sweeping generalization about the status of residential real estate in the United States doesn't serve anyone. After all would these journalists want their own home price deflated based on some broad market hype? I don't think so. Here are some common questions with my response.
Is it a buyers market?
Nash: Buyers have more weight in the market then they have had in the last five years, but the market is balanced and doesn't favor either buyers or sellers.
Do you think there is excess inventory of unsold homes?
Nash: The supply of resale homes is certainly up and the number of new construction condos is staggering. Most markets have been vacillating between warm and cool in 2006, so I am waiting for the prospect of pent-up buyer demand to turn into sales before making any forecasts, which everyone is waiting for. It's not easy to read the market at this point in time.
What about 2007?
2007 should be a consistent year sales wise for real estate. People have to remember that housing is also shelter and does not exactly mirror the stock market. People need to live somewhere. Consumer confidence is on the rise, and with energy prices falling, home buyers that have stayed on the sidelines, should make a purchase in 2007.
What about the new Option ARM mortgages?
These mortgages are not so new, but being peddled today to home buyers that probably are over-borrowing if they need an Option ARM. Consumers should know that these loans include negative amortization, which is not in their short or long term financial interest.
Are incentives going to motivate buyers to sign contracts?
Nash: In new construction they are quite common, and do motivate buyers, but many buyers have told me for years that they feel incentives are factored into sales prices, or that prices are raised to include the price of the incentive. In existing homes, incentives are trying to break in to the process, but are being met by buyers with resistance. Most buyers want to cut to the chase and get the lowest price. One exception is flat-screen televisions, they can entice many buyers, especially men.
Seller concessions on resale homes appear to be the buzzword for 2006.
Nash: We are seeing home sellers be much more flexible in 2006 on repairing or crediting buyers for inspection issues. Also they are more likely to help with closing costs. But, they are not giving much on price.
When is your annual report on "What's In, What's Out with Homebuyers in 2007" released?
Nash: The second week of December. It has some interesting new trends that are the result of the correcting market in 2006.
How can home buyers, sellers or real estate agents participate in the survey that is part of the report?
Nash: They can visit my website: click on "For Agents" and register.
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